Your pivot is inevitable - use the reversed hockey stick to succeed

The Reversed Hockey Stick Curve

The hockey stick curve is one of the most iconic visuals in the startup world. It represents a phase of slow, incremental progress (the flat "blade") followed by exponential growth (the steep "handle"). For many entrepreneurs, this curve symbolizes success and the promise of rapid expansion. When I speak to portfolio founders of Pitchdrive, they all want to get out of the initial ‘flat phase’ as soon as possible. It’s understandable, as this phase consists of hard grinding, short nights of sleep, and a lot of walking face-first into walls.

But here’s the twist of the reversed hockey stick: the long side of the hockey stick comes first, and with good reason. Statistically, you will pivot at least once. What happens if you go all in on growth in the early stages, burn through your freshly raised capital like wildfire, and have to pivot to a new (unproven) product? Raising with new investors will be harder, existing investors will be more skeptical, and often this results in more founder dilution.

That flat handle is a necessary foundation that startups must overcome with patience and, most of all, persistence and energy. It will give you the time and space to pivot in your product, team, growth strategy, and more. Rushing through it or expecting rapid growth too soon can derail your progress.

Startups often experience little to no revenue in their first year. Median revenues reach about € 3 million by year four, highlighting the length of this flat phase. Most companies spend 3–4 years here refining their foundations before the "blade" (if it ever) appears. *1

You HAVE to pivot

Research shows that startups that pivot once or twice experience 3.6 times better user growth and raise 2.5 times more funds compared to those that don't pivot or pivot more than twice. *2

One of the main reasons I believe pivoted startups do better is the overall mindset of the founders. The key is to be experimental, opportunistic, and flexible. Take off the blinders and look around. What are your customers saying in between the lines? Do they really want to pay for what you showed them in a demo?

I often hear the argument, ‘But we already put a lot of work into this.’. If you keep looking backward, fear will overpower your ability to pivot and ultimately capitalize on the best opportunities for your startup.

Be in control of the Flat Handle to make room for pivots

The flat handle of the hockey stick is where your startup’s survival and future success are forged. It’s the moment when you focus on going through pivots, finding your product-market fit, and building a solid foundation that you will benefit from for years.

It’s tempting to rush through this phase, but doing so can result in missed opportunities and poor scalability later. Don’t get me wrong - you should not be slow or stay in stealth mode - you should go out into the market and be fully in control of your flat handle.

Three pillars to navigate the Flat Handle:

1. Cost Control: Startups often burn through cash trying to accelerate growth prematurely. Operating lean during this stage is crucial for longevity. Cost control should be an overall attitude, and should start from day 0.
2. Experiment by design: This is your time to test, iterate, and refine. Lessons learned now will help you avoid expensive mistakes during the growth phase and may lead to high growth pivots. Show magic by testing ideas manually first, fostering agility and customer insight before scaling.
3. Build a Stellar Team: The flat phase is the perfect time to assemble a high-performing team of your first ten hires. These should be people whom you go to war with. This team will be the strong foundation you’ll need to scale later. It’s the time to hire and fire fast.

When Do You Know You’re on the Upward Curve?

The transition to the "blade"—the steep upward climb—isn’t always obvious. For many startups, it’s a mix of measurable traction and an intuitive feeling that things are finally clicking. We see that a lot of our top portfolio companies, such as Hotelmanager, NineID and FoodAmigos (and many more), that are currently in the upward curve created a solid foundation in their first years on the flat handle.

Xpenditure’s Hockey Stick Moment

When I co-founded Cardiwise/Xpenditure (later Rydoo) in 2012, we spent years in the flat handle phase. During this time, we pivoted from a prepaid payment card to a SAAS expense management platform.  Here we refined our solution, educated the market, and iterated based on user feedback. Around 2016, we started seeing exponential growth. It was fuelled by product innovations like “killing the expense note,” a sleek interface, and strategic partnerships. That’s when we knew the upward curve had arrived—and it led to a successful exit and a global recognition with customers such as McKinsey, Deloitte, and Henkel.

Other Real-Life Examples of Hockey Stick Growth

Let’s take a look at some companies that exemplify the patience required to navigate the flat handle:

1. Slack‍

Launched in 2013 as a side project within Glitch, Slack spent years refining their communication tool. Growth remained gradual after launch as they improved the product and built their user base. Their hockey stick moment came in 2015 with viral adoption among businesses, following years of product development.

2. Airbnb

In its early years (2008-2011), Airbnb struggled with market adoption. The founders even sold branded cereal boxes to fund operations. Their hockey stick moment arrived when trust systems and user education finally paid off.

3. Shopify

Starting in 2006 as an online snowboard store, Shopify focused on building its e-commerce platform. Exponential growth began six years later, in 2012, when they opened their platform to other entrepreneurs.

But also some Belgian mega successes like OTA Insights (now Lighthouse) & Odoo put in the hard work in the first years that led to the successes of today.

Conclusion: The Flat Handle Is Where the Game Is Won

The hockey stick curve might inspire dreams of rapid success, but the flat handle is where the real magic happens. It’s during this foundational phase that startups refine their ideas, listen to their customers, and pivot toward product-market fit. The flat handle demands patience, but it also offers the chance to experiment, learn, and build a team and foundation that will fuel sustainable growth.

Success in the flat handle phase isn’t about rushing to the upward curve; it’s about mastering the fundamentals. By controlling costs, experimenting boldly, and surrounding yourself with the right people, you set the stage for a successful pivot and scalable growth.

There are always exceptions of fast growing companies and early mega exits, but most of the greatest companies— Slack, Airbnb, or Shopify—have faced this grind. Embrace it. The flat handle in combination with a pivot (big or small) isn’t just a phase to survive; it’s the proving ground where startups are shaped into companies capable of handling exponential growth. With persistence and strategic execution, the upward curve will come—and when it does, you’ll be ready to own it.

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Sources:

*1 - https://hockeystickprinciples.com/resources/research-study/*

*2 - https://www.failory.com/blog/startup-failure-rate?utm_source=chatgpt.com